통합 검색
통합 검색
- 작성자 HIMEA
- 조회수 375
Two-week suspension of attacks begins, but Lebanon remains a major source of uncertainty
The United States, Iran and Israel have entered a two-week period of reduced military operations, creating the first significant opportunity for diplomacy since the regional conflict began in late February.
Washington announced the temporary suspension as part of efforts to open negotiations with Tehran and reduce the risk of further escalation.
Israel has expressed support for the U.S. initiative on the condition that Iran stops attacks against Israel, the United States and regional states.
Negotiations expected to begin
Iran and the United States are expected to begin negotiations in Islamabad on April 10.
The talks are likely to address Iran’s nuclear program as well as the security of the Strait of Hormuz, whose disruption has significantly affected global energy markets since the beginning of the conflict.
The temporary ceasefire could provide negotiators with an opportunity to establish a more durable framework.
However, major differences remain between Washington and Tehran over nuclear enrichment, sanctions and regional security.
Lebanon complicates the ceasefire
The situation in Lebanon remains particularly uncertain.
Israel has stated that the temporary ceasefire with Iran does not automatically apply to its military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon and tensions involving Hezbollah could therefore undermine wider regional de-escalation.
Iran has also continued to link developments in Lebanon with its broader security concerns.
Strait of Hormuz remains central
Maritime security remains another major challenge.
The Strait of Hormuz has become one of the most important points of leverage in the conflict because of its importance to international oil and LNG supplies.
Even with reduced military activity, shipping companies are likely to remain cautious until a more stable political agreement is reached.
The next two weeks will therefore be critical.
If negotiations make progress, the temporary pause could become a first step toward ending the conflict. If talks fail or fighting expands again, the region could quickly return to military confrontation.
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